“Bayesian methods don’t harm people…..”

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</tr><tr> <td valign="top" height=412 colspan=2 BGCOLOR="#FFFFFF" TEXT="#080000"> <div> Adam Finkel, OSHA*</div> <bR> <div> As is the case with most other analytic tools used in environmental and health policy, skeptics have criticized the methods themselves when the only culprits are the practitioners who endorse <FONT SIZE="2" COLOR="#000000" FACE="Lucida Bright" ><I>misapplication </I></FONT>of the tools. Bayes' Theorem has been successfully used to defend the stringency of a federal exposure standard (OSHA's methylene chloride regulation, 1997), and to demonstrate that conventional methods of estimating the uncertainty in cancer potency factors understate the reasonable upper bound (Finkel, 1988).  However, using Bayes methods to "average" together conflicting scientific theories to generate a "best estimate" of risk represents a profoundly mistaken application of this otherwise indispensable theorem.</div> <div>  </div> <div> *Personal views.  For identification purposes only.</div> <bR> <div> <A HREF="bayes__theorem_simplified.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Bayes theorem simplified"><U>Previous Page</U></A>      <A HREF="sustainability_into_the_mainstream.htm" TARGET="_top" TITLE="Moving Sustainability into the Mainstrea"><U>Next Page</U></A></div> </td> </tr></table><html><body><a href="http://www.zend.com/store/products/zend-safeguard-suite.php"><img border="0" src="http://www.zend.com/images/store/safeguard_optimizer_img.gif" align="right"></a><center><h1>Zend Optimizer not installed</h1></center><p>This file was encoded by the <a href="http://www.zend.com/products/zend_guard">Zend Guard</a>. 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